New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
30 – 14
6 August 2011Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 13.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 38 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Piri Weepu-4.9
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Hosea Gear
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Sitiveni Sivivatu-9.3
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Andrew Hore-5.4
- 17Ben Franks-1.5
- 18Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 19Adam Thomson+2.1
- 20Andrew Ellis
- 21Colin Slade+2.9
- 22Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
Australia
- 1Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Ben Alexander-3.4
- 4Rob Simmons-1.5
- 5James Horwill+1.4
- 6Rocky Elsom(c)
- 7David Pocock+0.9
- 8Ben McCalman+5.9
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Digby Ioane
- 12Pat McCabe
- 13Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 14James O'Connor-0.2
- 15Kurtley Beale+3.5
Replacements
- 16Saia Fainga'a-3.7
- 17Pekahou Cowan
- 18Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 19Scott Higginbotham-1.6
- 20Luke Burgess
- 21Anthony Fainga'a
- 22Lachie Turner
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.