South Africa v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
9 – 14
13 August 2011Hollywoodbets Kings Park, Durban
What the model says about South Africa v Australia
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 16.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.5 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Heinrich Brussow+4.9
- 7Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 8Pierre Spies-4.0
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Butch James+0.9
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14JP Pietersen+0.8
- 15Francois Steyn+7.8
Replacements
- 16Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 17Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 18Gerhard Mostert
- 19Jean Deysel
- 20Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 21Morne Steyn-3.6
- 22Gio Aplon
Australia
- 1Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Ben Alexander-3.4
- 4James Horwill+1.4
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6Rocky Elsom(c)
- 7David Pocock+0.9
- 8Scott Higginbotham-1.6
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Digby Ioane
- 12Pat McCabe
- 13Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 14James O'Connor-0.2
- 15Kurtley Beale+3.5
Replacements
- 16Saia Fainga'a-3.7
- 17Salesi Ma'afu
- 18Sitaleki Timani
- 19Ben McCalman+5.9
- 20Radike Samo-1.7
- 21Luke Burgess
- 22Anthony Fainga'a
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.