Argentina v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 12
25 September 2011Hnry Stadium, Wellington · neutral venue
What the model says about Argentina v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 07:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 7.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.1 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Rodrigo Roncero
- 2Mario Ledesma Arocena
- 3Juan Figallo-4.0
- 4Manuel Carizza-12.9
- 5Patricio Albacete
- 6Julio Farias Cabello
- 7Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 8Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe
- 9Nicolas Vergallo
- 10Santiago Fernandez
- 11Horacio Agulla
- 12Felipe Contepomi(c)-2.0
- 13Marcelo Bosch
- 14Gonzalo Camacho
- 15Martin Rodriguez Gurruchage
Replacements
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Geoff Cross-3.7
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Alasdair Strokosch+1.8
- 7John Barclay-0.6
- 8Kelly Brown+3.1
- 9Rory Lawson(c)-3.0
- 10Ruaridh Jackson+1.8
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Graeme Morrison+2.7
- 13Nick de Luca
- 14Max Evans
- 15Chris Paterson+1.8
Replacements
- 16Dougie Hall-1.1
- 17Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 18Nathan Hines-2.0
- 19Richie Vernon
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Dan Parks+4.1
- 22Simon Danielli+0.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 44.0% | Possession | 56.0% |
| 42.0% | Territory | 58.0% |
Attack
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 201m | Carry metres | 332m |
| 8 | Defenders beaten | 15 |
| 79 | Passes | 174 |
Defence
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 102 | Tackles made | 84 |
| 15 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 8 |
Set pieces
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 58.3% | Lineout success | 83.3% |
| 7 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 23 | Scrums won | 22 |
Breakdown
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 81 | Rucks won | 102 |
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.