England v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 12
1 October 2011Eden Park, Auckland · neutral venue
What the model says about England v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 07:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 14.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.7 mm
- Wind
- 32 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Matt Stevens-0.0
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Louis Deacon-1.1
- 5Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 6Tom Croft-2.9
- 7Lewis Moody(c)+1.4
- 8James Haskell+0.9
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Delon Armitage
- 12Mike Tindall+3.5
- 13Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 14Chris Ashton+3.4
- 15Ben Foden
Replacements
- 16Dylan Hartley
- 17Alex Corbisiero
- 18Tom Palmer+2.1
- 19Nick Easter+2.6
- 20Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 21Toby Flood-1.2
- 22Matt Banahan
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Alastair Kellock(c)+2.2
- 6Alasdair Strokosch+1.8
- 7John Barclay-0.6
- 8Richie Vernon
- 9Mike Blair+4.5
- 10Ruaridh Jackson+1.8
- 11Simon Danielli+0.1
- 12Sean Lamont+5.6
- 13Joe Ansbro
- 14Max Evans
- 15Chris Paterson+1.8
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 18Nathan Hines-2.0
- 19Ross Rennie
- 20Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 21Dan Parks+4.1
- 22Nick de Luca
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 49.0% | Possession | 51.0% |
| 49.0% | Territory | 51.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 284m | Carry metres | 321m |
| 4 | Defenders beaten | 6 |
| 77 | Passes | 115 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 73 | Tackles made | 71 |
| 6 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 4 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 85.7% | Lineout success | 91.7% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 23 | Scrums won | 27 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 54 | Rucks won | 58 |
| 8 | Mauls won | 2 |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.