Ireland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
36 – 6
2 October 2011Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin · neutral venue
What the model says about Ireland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 07:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 32 m
- Temperature
- 10.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.7 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Stephen Ferris
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Keith Earls-4.9
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Tom Court
- 18Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 19Denis Leamy+5.0
- 20Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 21Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 22Andrew Trimble+3.5
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Cornelius van Zyl
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Fabio Semenzato
- 10Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 11Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 15Andrea Masi-5.0
Replacements
- 16Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 17Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 18Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 19Paul Derbyshire-1.1
- 20Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 21Riccardo Bocchino
- 22Luke McLean
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 59.0% | Possession | 41.0% |
| 60.0% | Territory | 40.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 418m | Carry metres | 162m |
| 8 | Defenders beaten | — |
| 148 | Passes | 66 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 53 | Tackles made | 92 |
| — | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 8 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 29 | Scrums won | 31 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 74 | Rucks won | 42 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 6 |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | — |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.