Scotland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 23
26 February 2012Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 7.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 26 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford(c)
- 3Geoff Cross-3.7
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6John Barclay-0.6
- 7Ross Rennie
- 8David Denton-0.1
- 9Mike Blair+4.5
- 10Greig Laidlaw
- 11Lee Jones
- 12Graeme Morrison+2.7
- 13Sean Lamont+5.6
- 14Rory Lamont+0.8
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Ed Kalman
- 18Alastair Kellock+2.2
- 19Richie Vernon
- 20Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 21Duncan Weir-1.7
- 22Nick de Luca
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 2Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Pascal Pape+1.7
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Morgan Parra-0.8
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Julien Malzieu-0.9
- 12Wesley Fofana-9.3
- 13Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Maxime Médard+1.5
Replacements
- 16William Servat+1.4
- 17Vincent Debaty
- 18Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 19Julien Bonnaire
- 20Julien Dupuy
- 21Lionel Beauxis+3.4
- 22Maxime Mermoz-3.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.