France v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 24
11 March 2012Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v England
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 10.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 2Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Pascal Pape+1.7
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Julien Bonnaire
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Julien Dupuy
- 10Lionel Beauxis+3.4
- 11Julien Malzieu-0.9
- 12Wesley Fofana-9.3
- 13Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16William Servat+1.4
- 17Vincent Debaty
- 18Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 19Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 20Morgan Parra-0.8
- 21Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 22Maxime Mermoz-3.2
England
- 1Alex Corbisiero
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Mouritz Botha
- 5Geoff Parling-5.6
- 6Tom Croft-2.9
- 7Chris Robshaw(c)
- 8Ben Morgan
- 9Lee Dickson
- 10Owen Farrell+1.1
- 11Charlie Sharples
- 12Brad Barritt-4.9
- 13Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 14Chris Ashton+3.4
- 15Ben Foden
Replacements
- 16Rob Webber
- 17Matt Stevens-0.0
- 18Tom Palmer+2.1
- 19Phil Dowson
- 20Ben Youngs+2.3
- 21Charlie Hodgson-2.4
- 22Mike Brown
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 3 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.