Wales v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 30
2 February 2013Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 3.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Matthew Rees-8.1
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Andrew Coombs
- 5Ian Evans+5.6
- 6Aaron Shingler-2.5
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11George North+8.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Craig Mitchell
- 19Olly Kohn
- 20Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 21Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 22James Hook-12.6
- 23Scott Williams+3.8
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Mike McCarthy
- 5Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip(c)
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Simon Zebo-1.2
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Craig Gilroy
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Declan Fitzpatrick
- 19Donncha O'Callaghan
- 20Chris Henry
- 21Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 22Ronan O'Gara
- 23Keith Earls-4.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.