France v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
6 – 16
9 February 2013Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Wales
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 0.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.5 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Yannick Forestier
- 2Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Jocelino Suta
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Fulgence Ouedraogo-0.3
- 7Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 10Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 11Benjamin Fall
- 12Maxime Mermoz-3.2
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Wesley Fofana-9.3
- 15Yoann Huget+2.1
Replacements
- 16Benjamin Kayser-4.5
- 17Vincent Debaty
- 18Luc Ducalcon
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Damien Chouly
- 21Morgan Parra-0.8
- 22Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 23Florian Fritz
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Richard Hibbard-2.4
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Andrew Coombs
- 5Ian Evans+5.6
- 6Ryan Jones(c)+7.9
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11George North+8.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Craig Mitchell
- 19Lou Reed
- 20Aaron Shingler-2.5
- 21Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 22James Hook-12.6
- 23Scott Williams+3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.