Ireland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
6 – 12
10 February 2013Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v England
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 6.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 24.3 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Mike McCarthy
- 5Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip(c)
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Simon Zebo-1.2
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Craig Gilroy
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Declan Fitzpatrick
- 19Donncha O'Callaghan
- 20Chris Henry
- 21Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 22Ronan O'Gara
- 23Keith Earls-4.9
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Tom Youngs
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5Geoff Parling-5.6
- 6James Haskell+0.9
- 7Chris Robshaw(c)
- 8Tom Wood+0.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Owen Farrell+1.1
- 11Mike Brown
- 12Billy Twelvetrees
- 13Brad Barritt-4.9
- 14Chris Ashton+3.4
- 15Alex Goode-2.4
Replacements
- 16Dylan Hartley
- 17David Wilson+7.0
- 18Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 19Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 20Thomas Waldrom
- 21Danny Care+3.0
- 22Toby Flood-1.2
- 23Manu Tuilagi+5.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.