England v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 13
23 February 2013Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v France
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 0.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5Geoff Parling-5.6
- 6Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 7Chris Robshaw(c)
- 8Tom Wood+0.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Owen Farrell+1.1
- 11Mike Brown
- 12Brad Barritt-4.9
- 13Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 14Chris Ashton+3.4
- 15Alex Goode-2.4
Replacements
- 16Tom Youngs
- 17David Wilson+7.0
- 18Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 19James Haskell+0.9
- 20Thomas Waldrom
- 21Danny Care+3.0
- 22Toby Flood-1.2
- 23Billy Twelvetrees
France
- 1Thomas Domingo+4.1
- 2Benjamin Kayser-4.5
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Christophe Samson
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Yannick Nyanga Kabasele+2.5
- 7Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Morgan Parra-0.8
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Benjamin Fall
- 12Wesley Fofana-9.3
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Yoann Huget+2.1
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.