Italy v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
9 – 26
23 February 2013Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Wales
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 7.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 25.5 mm
- Wind
- 31 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni(c)+1.4
- 4Antonio Pavanello
- 5Francesco Minto
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Simone Favaro+10.6
- 8Manoa Vosawai
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Kris Burton
- 11Luke McLean
- 12Gonzalo Canale
- 13Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 14Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 15Andrea Masi-5.0
Replacements
- 16Davide Giazzon
- 17Alberto de Marchi
- 18Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 19Quintin Geldenhuys
- 20Paul Derbyshire-1.1
- 21Tobie Botes
- 22Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 23Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Richard Hibbard-2.4
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Andrew Coombs
- 5Ian Evans+5.6
- 6Ryan Jones(c)+7.9
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11George North+8.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Craig Mitchell
- 19Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 20Sam Warburton
- 21Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 22James Hook-12.6
- 23Scott Williams+3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 2 |
| — | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.