Wales v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
30 – 3
16 March 2013Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v England
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 5.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 15.6 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins(c)+2.5
- 2Richard Hibbard-2.4
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 5Ian Evans+5.6
- 6Sam Warburton
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11George North+8.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Scott Andrews
- 19Andrew Coombs
- 20Aaron Shingler-2.5
- 21Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 22James Hook-12.6
- 23Scott Williams+3.8
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Tom Youngs
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5Geoff Parling-5.6
- 6Tom Croft-2.9
- 7Chris Robshaw(c)
- 8Tom Wood+0.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Owen Farrell+1.1
- 11Mike Brown
- 12Brad Barritt-4.9
- 13Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 14Chris Ashton+3.4
- 15Alex Goode-2.4
Replacements
- 16Dylan Hartley
- 17David Wilson+7.0
- 18Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 19Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 20James Haskell+0.9
- 21Danny Care+3.0
- 22Toby Flood-1.2
- 23Billy Twelvetrees
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.