Australia v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
12 – 38
7 September 2013Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
What the model says about Australia v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 10:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 19 m
- Temperature
- 18.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Rob Simmons-1.5
- 5Kane Douglas-3.4
- 6Scott Fardy
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Ben Mowen
- 9Will Genia(c)+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Nick Cummins
- 12Christian Leali'ifano
- 13Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 14James O'Connor-0.2
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Saia Fainga'a-3.7
- 17Scott Sio+1.4
- 18Ben Alexander-3.4
- 19Ben McCalman+5.9
- 20Liam Gill
- 21Nic White-2.5
- 22Matt To'omua-5.6
- 23Jesse Mogg
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Flip van der Merwe+0.1
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Willem Alberts+10.1
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers(c)+0.5
- 13JJ Engelbrecht
- 14Willie le Roux+4.6
- 15Zane Kirchner
Replacements
- 16Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 17Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 18Coenie Oosthuizen
- 19Juandre Kruger
- 20Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 21Jano Vermaak
- 22Patrick Lambie+6.5
- 23Jan Serfontein+12.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 4 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.