South Africa v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 8
28 September 2013DHL Newlands, Cape Town
What the model says about South Africa v Australia
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 24 m
- Temperature
- 12.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Flip van der Merwe+0.1
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Willem Alberts+10.1
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers(c)+0.5
- 13JJ Engelbrecht
- 14Willie le Roux+4.6
- 15Zane Kirchner
Replacements
- 16Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 17Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 18Coenie Oosthuizen
- 19Juandre Kruger
- 20Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 21Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 22Patrick Lambie+6.5
- 23Jan Serfontein+12.9
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Ben Alexander-3.4
- 4Rob Simmons-1.5
- 5James Horwill(c)+1.4
- 6Scott Fardy
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Ben Mowen
- 9Nic White-2.5
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Joseph Tomane
- 12Christian Leali'ifano
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Saia Fainga'a-3.7
- 17Benn Robinson-6.6
- 18Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 19Sitaleki Timani
- 20Ben McCalman+5.9
- 21Will Genia+2.0
- 22Matt To'omua-5.6
- 23Chris Feauai-Sautia
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.