Wales v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 15
1 February 2014Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 5.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.7 mm
- Wind
- 43 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Paul James-6.0
- 2Richard Hibbard-2.4
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Luke Charteris+2.1
- 5Alun Wyn Jones(c)-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 11George North+8.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Scott Williams+3.8
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Ryan Bevington
- 18Rhodri Jones
- 19Andrew Coombs
- 20Sam Warburton
- 21Rhys Webb+1.9
- 22James Hook-12.6
- 23Liam Williams+7.7
Italy
- 1Michele Rizzo
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Leonardo Sarto-7.6
- 12Alberto Sgarbi
- 13Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 14Angelo Esposito
- 15Luke McLean
Replacements
- 16Davide Giazzon
- 17Alberto de Marchi
- 18Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 19Joshua Furno
- 20Francesco Minto
- 21Tobie Botes
- 22Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 23Tommaso Iannone
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.