Wales v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 6
21 February 2014Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v France
- Kick-off
- 20:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 5.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.2 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Richard Hibbard-2.4
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Luke Charteris+2.1
- 5Jake Ball+1.0
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Rhys Webb+1.9
- 10Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 11Liam Williams+7.7
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13George North+8.6
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Rhodri Jones
- 19Andrew Coombs
- 20Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 21Mike Phillips
- 22Dan Biggar+0.4
- 23James Hook-12.6
France
- 1Thomas Domingo+4.1
- 2Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Pascal Pape(c)+1.7
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Yannick Nyanga Kabasele+2.5
- 7Wenceslas Lauret-2.6
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Jean-Marc Doussain
- 10Jules Plisson
- 11Hugo Bonneval
- 12Wesley Fofana-9.3
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Yoann Huget+2.1
- 15Brice Dulin-3.5
Replacements
- 16Brice Mach
- 17Yannick Forestier
- 18Vincent Debaty
- 19Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 20Damien Chouly
- 21Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 22Remi Tales
- 23Gaël Fickou+2.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.