Italy v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 21
22 February 2014Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 10.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 11.0 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Alberto de Marchi
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Joshua Furno
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Robert Barbieri-5.8
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Leonardo Sarto-7.6
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 14Angelo Esposito
- 15Luke McLean
Replacements
- 16Davide Giazzon
- 17Matias Aguero+1.9
- 18Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 19Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 20Paul Derbyshire-1.1
- 21Tobie Botes
- 22Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 23Tommaso Iannone
Scotland
- 1Ryan Grant
- 2Scott Lawson-0.4
- 3Moray Low-1.2
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 7Chris Fusaro
- 8Johnnie Beattie+2.0
- 9Greig Laidlaw(c)
- 10Duncan Weir-1.7
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Matt Scott-5.4
- 13Alex Dunbar-9.8
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Ross Ford
- 17Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 18Geoff Cross-3.7
- 19Tim Swinson
- 20David Denton-0.1
- 21Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 22Duncan Taylor
- 23Max Evans
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.