Scotland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 19
8 March 2014Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v France
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 6.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.5 mm
- Wind
- 38 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Ryan Grant
- 2Scott Lawson-0.4
- 3Geoff Cross-3.7
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Johnnie Beattie+2.0
- 7Kelly Brown(c)+3.1
- 8David Denton-0.1
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Duncan Weir-1.7
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Matt Scott-5.4
- 13Alex Dunbar-9.8
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Ross Ford
- 17Moray Low-1.2
- 18Euan Murray+2.7
- 19Tim Swinson
- 20Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 21Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 22Duncan Taylor
- 23Max Evans
France
- 1Thomas Domingo+4.1
- 2Brice Mach
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Pascal Pape(c)+1.7
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 7Alexandre Lapandry
- 8Damien Chouly
- 9Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 10Jules Plisson
- 11Maxime Médard+1.5
- 12Maxime Mermoz-3.2
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Yoann Huget+2.1
- 15Brice Dulin-3.5
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.