Australia v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 23
6 September 2014Patersons Stadium, Perth (WA)
What the model says about Australia v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 10:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 17.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.6 mm
- Wind
- 45 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2James Hanson
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Sam Carter
- 5Rob Simmons-1.5
- 6Scott Fardy
- 7Michael Hooper(c)+1.0
- 8Wycliff Palu+4.3
- 9Nick Phipps-0.5
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Rob Horne-3.3
- 12Matt To'omua-5.6
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Josh Mann-Rea
- 17Pekahou Cowan
- 18Ben Alexander-3.4
- 19James Horwill+1.4
- 20Scott Higginbotham-1.6
- 21Matt Hodgson
- 22Nic White-2.5
- 23Kurtley Beale+3.5
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Marcell Coetzee-4.4
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers(c)+0.5
- 13Jan Serfontein+12.9
- 14Cornal Hendricks
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 17Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 18Marcel van der Merwe
- 19Lood de Jager-4.9
- 20Warren Whiteley
- 21Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 22Patrick Lambie+6.5
- 23Damian de Allende-0.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 6 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.