Italy v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
3 – 26
7 February 2015Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 5.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 23 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Matias Aguero+1.9
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4George Biagi
- 5Joshua Furno
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Francesco Minto
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Kelly Haimona
- 11Luke McLean
- 12Luca Morisi+0.0
- 13Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 14Leonardo Sarto-7.6
- 15Andrea Masi-5.0
Replacements
- 16Andrea Manici
- 17Alberto de Marchi
- 18Dario Chistolini
- 19Marco Fuser
- 20Marco Barbini
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 23Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
Ireland
- 1Jack McGrath
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Devin Toner+4.4
- 5Paul O'Connell(c)-2.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Tommy O'Donnell
- 8Jordi Murphy
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Ian Keatley
- 11Simon Zebo-1.2
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Jared Payne
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17James Cronin
- 18Marty Moore
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Robbie Diack
- 21Isaac Boss
- 22Ian Madigan
- 23Felix Jones
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 2 |
| — | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.