Scotland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 22
28 February 2015Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 6.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 7.1 mm
- Wind
- 45 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 22 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Tim Swinson
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Rob Harley
- 7Blair Cowan
- 8Johnnie Beattie+2.0
- 9Greig Laidlaw(c)
- 10Peter Horne+2.1
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Alex Dunbar-9.8
- 13Mark Bennett-0.3
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Ryan Grant
- 18Geoff Cross-3.7
- 19Ben Toolis
- 20Hamish Watson-1.1
- 21Sam Hidalgo-Clyne
- 22Greig Tonks
- 23Matt Scott-5.4
Italy
- 1Matias Aguero+1.9
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Dario Chistolini
- 4George Biagi
- 5Joshua Furno
- 6Francesco Minto
- 7Simone Favaro+10.6
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Kelly Haimona
- 11Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 12Enrico Bacchin
- 13Luca Morisi+0.0
- 14Michele Visentin
- 15Luke McLean
Replacements
- 16Andrea Manici
- 17Alberto de Marchi
- 18Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 19Marco Fuser
- 20Samu Vunisa
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 23Giulio Bisegni
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.