Ireland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 9
1 March 2015Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v England
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 4.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.3 mm
- Wind
- 36 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Jack McGrath
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Devin Toner+4.4
- 5Paul O'Connell(c)-2.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jordi Murphy
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Simon Zebo-1.2
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Jared Payne
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Marty Moore
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Tommy O'Donnell
- 21Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 22Ian Madigan
- 23Felix Jones
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Dave Attwood
- 5George Kruis+4.6
- 6James Haskell+0.9
- 7Chris Robshaw(c)
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jack Nowell+4.7
- 12Luther Burrell
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Alex Goode-2.4
Replacements
- 16Tom Youngs
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Henry Thomas
- 19Nick Easter+2.6
- 20Tom Croft-2.9
- 21Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 22Danny Cipriani
- 23Billy Twelvetrees
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.