New Zealand v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
39 – 18
17 July 2015Jade Stadium (Lancaster Park), Christchurch
What the model says about New Zealand v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 5 m
- Temperature
- 4.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-43.54194,172.65417 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Luke Romano+1.2
- 5Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9TJ Perenara-8.3
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Charles Piutau
- 12Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 13Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 14Waisake Naholo
- 15Israel Dagg-2.1
Replacements
- 16Codie Taylor-2.6
- 17Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 18Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 19Jeremy Thrush
- 20Liam Messam+1.5
- 21Andrew Ellis
- 22Colin Slade+2.9
- 23Ryan Crotty+8.7
Argentina
- 1Marcos Ayerza+10.6
- 2Agustin Creevy(c)+2.4
- 3Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Manuel Carizza-12.9
- 6Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 7Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe
- 8Facundo Isa+1.6
- 9Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Santiago Cordero-1.8
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Marcelo Bosch
- 14Horacio Agulla
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
- 16Julián Montoya
- 17Lucas Noguera Paz
- 18Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 19Benjamin Macome
- 20Javier Ortega Desio
- 21Martin Landajo
- 22Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias-5.1
- 23Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.