Argentina v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
9 – 34
25 July 2015Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Mendoza
What the model says about Argentina v Australia
- Kick-off
- 22:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 830 m
- Temperature
- 9.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-32.88968,-68.87990 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Marcos Ayerza+10.6
- 2Agustin Creevy(c)+2.4
- 3Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 4Manuel Carizza-12.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Javier Ortega Desio
- 7Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe
- 8Facundo Isa+1.6
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Juan Imhoff+8.0
- 12Juan Pablo Socino
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Gonzalo Camacho
- 15Santiago Cordero-1.8
Replacements
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Stephen Moore(c)+5.5
- 3Greg Holmes+9.7
- 4Will Skelton+6.1
- 5Rob Simmons-1.5
- 6Scott Fardy
- 7David Pocock+0.9
- 8Ben McCalman+5.9
- 9Nick Phipps-0.5
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Joseph Tomane
- 12Matt To'omua-5.6
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 17Scott Sio+1.4
- 18Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 19Dean Mumm+2.1
- 20Michael Hooper+1.0
- 21Nic White-2.5
- 22Quade Cooper+4.9
- 23Kurtley Beale+3.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 4 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.