England v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 13
5 September 2015Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 12.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Tom Youngs
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Geoff Parling-5.6
- 5Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 6Tom Wood+0.3
- 7Chris Robshaw
- 8Ben Morgan
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Brad Barritt-4.9
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Kieran Brookes
- 19Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 20Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 21Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 22Owen Farrell+1.1
- 23Sam Burgess
Ireland
- 1Jack McGrath
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Devin Toner+4.4
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Dave Kearney
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Jared Payne
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Simon Zebo-1.2
Replacements
- 16Richardt Strauss
- 17Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 18Nathan White
- 19Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 20Chris Henry
- 21Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 22Ian Madigan
- 23Darren Cave
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
| 55.0% | Territory | 45.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 381m | Carry metres | 363m |
| 26 | Defenders beaten | 12 |
| 14 | Offloads | 3 |
| 213 | Passes | 208 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 155 | Tackles made | 129 |
| 12 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 26 |
| 10 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 91.7% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 3 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | Rucks won | 108 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 442m | Kick metres | 507m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 5 |
| 16 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 18 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.