South Africa v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 16
3 October 2015St James' Park, Newcastle · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 15:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 71 m
- Temperature
- 8.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 6 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Schalk Burger+6.0
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Fourie du Preez(c)+10.4
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14JP Pietersen+0.8
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 17Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 18Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 19Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 20Willem Alberts+10.1
- 21Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 22Patrick Lambie+6.5
- 23Jan Serfontein+12.9
Scotland
- 1Gordon Reid+0.3
- 2Fraser Brown-1.1
- 3WP Nel+4.2
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Josh Strauss+6.2
- 7Blair Cowan
- 8David Denton-0.1
- 9Greig Laidlaw(c)
- 10Duncan Weir-1.7
- 11Tim Visser+1.5
- 12Matt Scott-5.4
- 13Richie Vernon
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Ross Ford
- 17Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 18Jon Welsh
- 19Tim Swinson
- 20Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 21Sam Hidalgo-Clyne
- 22Peter Horne+2.1
- 23Sean Lamont+5.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 56.0% | Possession | 44.0% |
| 60.0% | Territory | 40.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 435m | Carry metres | 350m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 17 | Defenders beaten | 11 |
| 4 | Offloads | 5 |
| 156 | Passes | 121 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 119 | Tackles made | 166 |
| 92.0% | Tackle success | 91.0% |
| 11 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 17 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 77.8% | Lineout success | 80.0% |
| 7 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 7 | Scrums won | — |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 102 | Rucks won | 79 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Kicks from hand | 29 |
| 452m | Kick metres | 550m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.