Ireland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 9
4 October 2015London Stadium, London · neutral venue
What the model says about Ireland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 15:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 12.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Jack McGrath
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Iain Henderson-1.4
- 5Paul O'Connell(c)-2.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Dave Kearney
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Keith Earls-4.9
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Simon Zebo-1.2
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Nathan White
- 19Devin Toner+4.4
- 20Chris Henry
- 21Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 22Ian Madigan
- 23Luke Fitzgerald-5.3
Italy
- 1Matias Aguero+1.9
- 2Andrea Manici
- 3Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Joshua Furno
- 6Francesco Minto
- 7Simone Favaro+10.6
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 14Leonardo Sarto-7.6
- 15Luke McLean
Replacements
- 16Davide Giazzon
- 17Michele Rizzo
- 18Dario Chistolini
- 19Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 20Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Carlo Canna+1.5
- 23Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 57.0% | Possession | 43.0% |
| 62.0% | Territory | 38.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 388m | Carry metres | 372m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 1 |
| 20 | Defenders beaten | 10 |
| 2 | Offloads | 10 |
| 154 | Passes | 165 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 106 | Tackles made | 152 |
| 91.0% | Tackle success | 88.0% |
| 10 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 70.6% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 5 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 110 | Rucks won | 82 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 43 | Kicks from hand | 28 |
| 402m | Kick metres | 408m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.