France v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
10 – 9
13 February 2016Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:25 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 6.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 11.5 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 22 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Alexandre Flanquart
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Wenceslas Lauret-2.6
- 7Yacouba Camara
- 8Damien Chouly
- 9Sebastien Bezy
- 10Jules Plisson
- 11Virimi Vakatawa-5.1
- 12Jonathan Danty+3.7
- 13Maxime Mermoz-3.2
- 14Teddy Thomas
- 15Maxime Médard+1.5
Replacements
- 16Camille Chat-3.8
- 17Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 18Eddy Ben Arous
- 19Paul Jedrasiak
- 20Loann Goujon
- 21Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 22Jean-Marc Doussain
- 23Hugo Bonneval
Ireland
- 1Jack McGrath
- 2Rory Best
- 3Nathan White
- 4Mike McCarthy
- 5Devin Toner+4.4
- 6CJ Stander
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Dave Kearney
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Jared Payne
- 14Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Richardt Strauss
- 17James Cronin
- 18Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 19Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 20Tommy O'Donnell
- 21Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 22Ian Madigan
- 23Fergus McFadden+2.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.