New Zealand v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
57 – 22
10 September 2016FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton
What the model says about New Zealand v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 46 m
- Temperature
- 7.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Ryan Crotty+8.7
- 13Malakai Fekitoa
- 14Israel Dagg-2.1
- 15Ben Smith-1.6
Replacements
- 16Codie Taylor-2.6
- 17Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 18Charlie Faumuina
- 19Luke Romano+1.2
- 20Ardie Savea-6.0
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Aaron Cruden+1.7
- 23Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Javier Ortega Desio
- 8Facundo Isa+1.6
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Santiago Cordero-1.8
- 12Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
- 13Matias Orlando-3.8
- 14Matías Moroni-12.4
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
- 16Julián Montoya
- 17Lucas Noguera Paz
- 18Enrique Pieretto-5.3
- 19Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 20Leonardo Senatore+4.8
- 21Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 22Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias-5.1
- 23Ramiro Moyano
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 1 |
| 7 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.