New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
41 – 13
17 September 2016Jade Stadium (Lancaster Park), Christchurch
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 5 m
- Temperature
- 11.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-43.54194,172.65417 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Ardie Savea-6.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Ryan Crotty+8.7
- 13Malakai Fekitoa
- 14Israel Dagg-2.1
- 15Ben Smith-1.6
Replacements
- 16Codie Taylor-2.6
- 17Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 18Charlie Faumuina
- 19Luke Romano+1.2
- 20Matt Todd
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Lima Sopoaga
- 23Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 3Vincent Koch-5.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Oupa Mohoje
- 8Warren Whiteley
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Elton Jantjies+0.2
- 11Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 12Juan de Jongh-2.5
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Bryan Habana+1.1
- 15Johan Goosen
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Lourens Adriaanse
- 19Franco Mostert-1.0
- 20Willem Alberts+10.1
- 21Jaco Kriel
- 22Morne Steyn-3.6
- 23Damian de Allende-0.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.