England v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
37 – 21
3 December 2016Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Australia
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 4.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 5George Kruis+4.6
- 6Chris Robshaw
- 7Tom Wood+0.3
- 8Nathan Hughes
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Owen Farrell+1.1
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Marland Yarde
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Joe Marler+2.8
- 18Kyle Sinckler
- 19Charlie Ewels-2.7
- 20Teimana Harrison
- 21Danny Care+3.0
- 22Ben Te'o
- 23Henry Slade0.0
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Kane Douglas-3.4
- 5Rob Simmons-1.5
- 6David Pocock+0.9
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Lopeti Timani
- 9Nick Phipps-0.5
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Sefa Naivalu
- 12Reece Hodge
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Dane Haylett-Petty-9.9
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Tolu Latu
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Tom Robertson+2.2
- 19Dean Mumm+2.1
- 20Sean McMahon+6.7
- 21Nick Frisby
- 22Quade Cooper+4.9
- 23Henry Speight
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.