Italy v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
7 – 33
5 February 2017Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Wales
- Kick-off
- 14:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 12.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 16.9 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Ornel Gega
- 3Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 4Marco Fuser
- 5George Biagi
- 6Braam Steyn+4.4
- 7Maxime Mbanda-4.9
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Carlo Canna+1.5
- 11Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 12Luke McLean
- 13Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 14Giulio Bisegni
- 15Edoardo Padovani+0.5
Replacements
- 16Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 17Sami Panico
- 18Pietro Ceccarelli+0.8
- 19Joshua Furno
- 20Francesco Minto
- 21Giorgio Bronzini
- 22Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 23Michele Campagnaro+0.8
Wales
- 1Nicky Smith-0.9
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Samson Lee
- 4Jake Ball+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Sam Warburton
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 9Rhys Webb+1.9
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Liam Williams+7.7
- 12Scott Williams+3.8
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 17Rob Evans+7.5
- 18Tomas Francis+10.5
- 19Cory Hill+7.7
- 20James King
- 21Gareth Davies+1.8
- 22Sam Davies
- 23Jamie Roberts
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 3 |
| — | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.