Ireland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 9
25 February 2017Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v France
- Kick-off
- 16:50 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 10.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.0 mm
- Wind
- 34 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Jack McGrath
- 2Rory Best
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 5Devin Toner+4.4
- 6CJ Stander
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Simon Zebo-1.2
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Niall Scannell
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18John Ryan
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 21Kieran Marmion
- 22Paddy Jackson
- 23Andrew Trimble+3.5
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 7Kevin Gourdon
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 10Camille Lopez+2.7
- 11Noa Nakaitaci
- 12Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 13Remi Lamerat
- 14Yoann Huget+2.1
- 15Scott Spedding
Replacements
- 16Christopher Tolofua
- 17Uini Atonio+0.4
- 18Eddy Ben Arous
- 19Julien Ledevedec
- 20Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 21Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 22Henry Chavancy
- 23Djibril Camara
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.