Scotland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 0
18 March 2017Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 12:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 7.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.7 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Gordon Reid+0.3
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6John Barclay-0.6
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Tim Visser+1.5
- 12Alex Dunbar-9.8
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Allan Dell-3.1
- 18Simon Berghan-0.6
- 19Tim Swinson
- 20Cornell du Preez
- 21Henry Pyrgos
- 22Duncan Weir-1.7
- 23Matt Scott-5.4
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Ornel Gega
- 3Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 4Marco Fuser
- 5George Biagi
- 6Braam Steyn+4.4
- 7Maxime Mbanda-4.9
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Carlo Canna+1.5
- 11Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 12Luke McLean
- 13Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 14Angelo Esposito
- 15Edoardo Padovani+0.5
Replacements
- 16Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 17Sami Panico
- 18Dario Chistolini
- 19Dries van Schalkwyk
- 20Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 21Francesco Minto
- 22Marcello Violi
- 23Luca Sperandio
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | — |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.