New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
35 – 29
26 August 2017Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 32 m
- Temperature
- 12.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Liam Squire
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 12Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 13Ryan Crotty+8.7
- 14Ben Smith-1.6
- 15Damian McKenzie+0.5
Replacements
- 16Codie Taylor-2.6
- 17Kane Hames
- 18Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 19Scott Barrett+2.6
- 20Ardie Savea-6.0
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Lima Sopoaga
- 23Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Rory Arnold-6.0
- 5Rob Simmons-1.5
- 6Ned Hanigan
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Sean McMahon+6.7
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Henry Speight
- 12Kurtley Beale+3.5
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Dane Haylett-Petty-9.9
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 17Tom Robertson+2.2
- 18Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 19Izack Rodda
- 20Lopeti Timani
- 21Nick Phipps-0.5
- 22Reece Hodge
- 23Curtis Rona
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 5 |
| 5 | Conversions | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.