Argentina v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
10 – 36
30 September 2017Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires
What the model says about Argentina v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 22:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 25 m
- Temperature
- 16.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Lucas Noguera Paz
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Tomas Lezana-4.2
- 8Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 9Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Emiliano Boffelli
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matias Orlando-3.8
- 14Matías Moroni-12.4
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
New Zealand
- 1Kane Hames
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 4Luke Romano+1.2
- 5Scott Barrett+2.6
- 6Vaea Fifita
- 7Matt Todd
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 12Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 13Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 14Waisake Naholo
- 15Damian McKenzie+0.5
Replacements
- 16Codie Taylor-2.6
- 17Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 18Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 19Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 20Ardie Savea-6.0
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Ngani Laumape
- 23David Havili+0.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 5 |
| 1 | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.