South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 25
7 October 2017DHL Newlands, Cape Town
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 24 m
- Temperature
- 14.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Steven Kitshoff
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Ruan Dreyer
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Francois Louw+9.7
- 9Ross Cronje
- 10Elton Jantjies+0.2
- 11Courtnall Skosan
- 12Jan Serfontein+12.9
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Dillyn Leyds
- 15Andries Coetzee
Replacements
- 16Chiliboy Ralepelle-1.3
- 17Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 18Wilco Louw-1.7
- 19Franco Mostert-1.0
- 20Jean-Luc du Preez
- 21Rudy Paige
- 22Handré Pollard-4.0
- 23Damian de Allende-0.1
New Zealand
- 1Kane Hames
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 4Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 5Scott Barrett+2.6
- 6Liam Squire
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 12Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 13Ryan Crotty+8.7
- 14Nehe Milner-Skudder
- 15Damian McKenzie+0.5
Replacements
- 16Codie Taylor-2.6
- 17Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 18Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 19Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 20Matt Todd
- 21Tawera Kerr-Barlow+2.6
- 22Lima Sopoaga
- 23David Havili+0.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.