France v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 15
3 February 2018Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 2.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.9 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 26 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Arthur Iturria
- 5Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 6Wenceslas Lauret-2.6
- 7Yacouba Camara
- 8Kevin Gourdon
- 9Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 10Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
- 11Virimi Vakatawa-5.1
- 12Henry Chavancy
- 13Remi Lamerat
- 14Teddy Thomas
- 15Geoffrey Palis
Replacements
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Iain Henderson-1.4
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Jack McGrath
- 18John Ryan
- 19Devin Toner+4.4
- 20Dan Leavy
- 21Luke McGrath
- 22Joey Carbery+2.6
- 23Fergus McFadden+2.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.