Ireland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
56 – 19
10 February 2018Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 8.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 7.5 mm
- Wind
- 50 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Jack McGrath
- 2Rory Best
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Iain Henderson-1.4
- 5Devin Toner+4.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Dan Leavy
- 8Jack Conan-2.8
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Andrew Porter
- 19Quinn Roux
- 20CJ Stander
- 21Kieran Marmion
- 22Joey Carbery+2.6
- 23Jordan Larmour-6.3
Italy
- 1Nicola Quaglio
- 2Luca Bigi
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 5Dean Budd
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Braam Steyn+4.4
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Marcello Violi
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Mattia Bellini+1.7
- 12Tommaso Castello
- 13Tommaso Boni
- 14Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 15Matteo Minozzi
Replacements
- 16Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 17Andrea Lovotti
- 18Tiziano Pasquali+8.2
- 19Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 20Maxime Mbanda-4.9
- 21Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 22Carlo Canna+1.5
- 23Jayden Hayward
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 3 |
| 8 | Conversions | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.