Ireland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
37 – 27
24 February 2018Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 3.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 28 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Andrew Porter
- 4James Ryan-8.4
- 5Devin Toner+4.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Dan Leavy
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Chris Farrell
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Jack McGrath
- 18John Ryan
- 19Quinn Roux
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21Kieran Marmion
- 22Joey Carbery+2.6
- 23Fergus McFadden+2.9
Wales
- 1Rob Evans+7.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Samson Lee
- 4Cory Hill+7.7
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Aaron Shingler-2.5
- 7Josh Navidi+6.8
- 8Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Steffan Evans
- 12Hadleigh Parkes
- 13Scott Williams+3.8
- 14Liam Williams+7.7
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Wyn Jones+0.5
- 18Tomas Francis+10.5
- 19Bradley Davies+0.8
- 20Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 21Aled Davies
- 22Gareth Anscombe+3.7
- 23George North+8.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.