England v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 24
17 March 2018Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 1.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.0 mm
- Wind
- 33 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5George Kruis+4.6
- 6Chris Robshaw
- 7James Haskell+0.9
- 8Sam Simmonds
- 9Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 10Owen Farrell+1.1
- 11Elliot Daly-1.4
- 12Ben Te'o
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Jonny May-3.0
- 15Anthony Watson-0.9
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Joe Marler+2.8
- 18Dan Cole+1.5
- 19Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 20Don Armand
- 21Danny Care+3.0
- 22George Ford-2.9
- 23Mike Brown
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4James Ryan-8.4
- 5Iain Henderson-1.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Dan Leavy
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Jack McGrath
- 18Andrew Porter
- 19Devin Toner+4.4
- 20Jordi Murphy
- 21Kieran Marmion
- 22Joey Carbery+2.6
- 23Jordan Larmour-6.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.