Argentina v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 35
29 September 2018Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires
What the model says about Argentina v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 22:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 25 m
- Temperature
- 19.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 68.4 mm
- Wind
- 34 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Javier Ortega Desio
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Matías Moroni-12.4
- 12Bautista Ezcurra
- 13Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 14Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 15Emiliano Boffelli
Replacements
New Zealand
- 1Karl Tu'inukuafe
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 4Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 5Scott Barrett+2.6
- 6Shannon Frizell+12.1
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9TJ Perenara-8.3
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 12Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 13Ryan Crotty+8.7
- 14Waisake Naholo
- 15Ben Smith-1.6
Replacements
- 16Nathan Harris
- 17Tim Perry
- 18Angus Ta'avao
- 19Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 20Jackson Hemopo
- 21Aaron Smith-4.6
- 22Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 23Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 5 |
| 2 | Conversions | 5 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.