Argentina v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 45
6 October 2018Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena, Salta
What the model says about Argentina v Australia
- Kick-off
- 22:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 1177 m
- Temperature
- 17.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-24.82090,-65.41912 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Javier Ortega Desio
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Ramiro Moyano
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matias Orlando-3.8
- 14Matías Moroni-12.4
- 15Emiliano Boffelli
Replacements
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Folau Fainga'a
- 3Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 4Izack Rodda
- 5Adam Coleman
- 6Ned Hanigan
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8David Pocock+0.9
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Kurtley Beale+3.5
- 13Reece Hodge
- 14Israel Folau
- 15Dane Haylett-Petty-9.9
Replacements
- 16Tolu Latu
- 17Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 18Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 19Rob Simmons-1.5
- 20Caleb Timu
- 21Nick Phipps-0.5
- 22Matt To'omua-5.6
- 23Tom Banks
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 6 |
| 4 | Conversions | 6 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.