Argentina v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 20
20 July 2019Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires
What the model says about Argentina v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 18:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 25 m
- Temperature
- 14.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.4 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Juan Figallo-4.0
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Javier Ortega Desio
- 9Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Ramiro Moyano
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matias Orlando-3.8
- 14Matías Moroni-12.4
- 15Emiliano Boffelli
Replacements
- 16Julián Montoya
- 17Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 18Santiago Medrano
- 19Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 20Tomas Lezana-4.2
- 21Felipe Ezcurra
- 22Joaquin Diaz Bonilla
- 23Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
New Zealand
- 1Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Angus Ta'avao
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 6Vaea Fifita
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 12Ngani Laumape
- 13Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 14Sevu Reece-4.1
- 15Ben Smith-1.6
Replacements
- 16Liam Coltman
- 17Atu Moli
- 18Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 19Jackson Hemopo
- 20Luke Jacobson+2.4
- 21Brad Weber
- 22Josh Ioane
- 23Braydon Ennor
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.