Australia v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 10
27 July 2019Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
What the model says about Australia v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 09:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 19 m
- Temperature
- 17.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Folau Fainga'a
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Izack Rodda
- 5Rory Arnold-6.0
- 6Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Isi Naisarani
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Christian Leali'ifano
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Reece Hodge
- 15Kurtley Beale+3.5
Replacements
- 16Tolu Latu
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 19Rob Simmons-1.5
- 20Luke Jones
- 21Nic White-2.5
- 22Matt To'omua-5.6
- 23James O'Connor-0.2
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Juan Figallo-4.0
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Tomas Lezana-4.2
- 8Facundo Isa+1.6
- 9Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Ramiro Moyano
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Santiago Cordero-1.8
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
- 16Santiago Socino
- 17Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 18Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 19Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 20Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 21Felipe Ezcurra
- 22Joaquin Diaz Bonilla
- 23Matias Orlando-3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.