New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 13
21 September 2019International Stadium Yokohama, Yokohama · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 09:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 15 m
- Temperature
- 20.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
35.50999,139.60638 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 43 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 4Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 5Scott Barrett+2.6
- 6Ardie Savea-6.0
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Kieran Read(c)-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 11George Bridge
- 12Ryan Crotty+8.7
- 13Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 14Sevu Reece-4.1
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Codie Taylor-2.6
- 17Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 18Angus Ta'avao
- 19Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 20Shannon Frizell+12.1
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 23Ben Smith-1.6
South Africa
- 1Steven Kitshoff
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 18Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Francois Louw+9.7
- 21Herschel Jantjies+3.4
- 22Francois Steyn+7.8
- 23Jesse Kriel-6.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 47.0% | Possession | 53.0% |
| 41.0% | Territory | 59.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 367m | Carry metres | 370m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 35 | Defenders beaten | 28 |
| 8 | Offloads | 2 |
| 143 | Passes | 119 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 126 | Tackles made | 108 |
| 82.0% | Tackle success | 76.0% |
| 28 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 35 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 77.8% | Lineout success | — |
| 7 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 77 | Rucks won | 87 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 601m | Kick metres | 541m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.