Ireland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 14
8 February 2020Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 7.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 7.1 mm
- Wind
- 42 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rob Herring+3.4
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Iain Henderson-1.4
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 14Andrew Conway
- 15Jordan Larmour-6.3
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Andrew Porter
- 19Devin Toner+4.4
- 20Max Deegan
- 21John Cooney
- 22Ross Byrne
- 23Keith Earls-4.9
Wales
- 1Wyn Jones+0.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 4Jake Ball+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Hadleigh Parkes
- 13Nick Tompkins-1.1
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Ryan Elias+3.4
- 17Rhys Carré-1.2
- 18Leon Brown
- 19Adam Beard+1.0
- 20Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 21Gareth Davies+1.8
- 22Jarrod Evans
- 23Johnny McNicholl
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.