England v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 12
23 February 2020Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 10.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.2 mm
- Wind
- 41 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5George Kruis+4.6
- 6Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Tom Curry+0.8
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 12Owen Farrell+1.1
- 13Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 14Jonny May-3.0
- 15Elliot Daly-1.4
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Ellis Genge-12.8
- 18Will Stuart+2.0
- 19Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 20Charlie Ewels-2.7
- 21Ben Earl+3.7
- 22Willi Heinz
- 23Henry Slade0.0
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rob Herring+3.4
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Devin Toner+4.4
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 14Andrew Conway
- 15Jordan Larmour-6.3
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Andrew Porter
- 19Ultan Dillane
- 20Caelan Doris-11.4
- 21John Cooney
- 22Ross Byrne
- 23Keith Earls-4.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.