England v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 30
7 March 2020Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Wales
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 7.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 39 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5George Kruis+4.6
- 6Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 7Mark Wilson
- 8Tom Curry+0.8
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Owen Farrell+1.1
- 13Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Elliot Daly-1.4
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Ellis Genge-12.8
- 18Will Stuart+2.0
- 19Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 20Charlie Ewels-2.7
- 21Ben Earl+3.7
- 22Willi Heinz
- 23Henry Slade0.0
Wales
- 1Rob Evans+7.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 4Jake Ball+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Josh Navidi+6.8
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Liam Williams+7.7
- 12Hadleigh Parkes
- 13Nick Tompkins-1.1
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Ryan Elias+3.4
- 17Rhys Carré-1.2
- 18Leon Brown
- 19Aaron Shingler-2.5
- 20Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 21Rhys Webb+1.9
- 22Jarrod Evans
- 23Johnny McNicholl
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 3 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.